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Red142
659330.8
77309.8
341938.0
Blue130
234425.2
529832.3
922032.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7597050150200142130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+12
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave3
4Coral scored#3
21Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +23
11Coral scored#20
38Coral points73
4Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
24Processor points12
20Net points20
44Algae points32
82Total teleop105
Reef
6L4#7
3L3#8
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
24Game pieces#30
BargeRed +24
30Cage & park6
30Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
142Total score130

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.01.6
33.935.6
Auto10.3
Teleop21.7
End6.0
red by 5.0
32.91.4
30.131.5
Auto6.5
Teleop26.0
End0.4
Second
30.81.6
26.828.4
Auto8.4
Teleop17.2
End5.2
blue by 1.5
5298
#18
32.31.1
30.231.2
Auto5.3
Teleop24.9
End2.1
Third
7730
#22
9.81.6
7.28.9
Auto2.2
Teleop5.1
End2.5
blue by 15.4
2344
#40
25.21.4
22.323.7
Auto3.0
Teleop21.2
End1.0