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Red150
112629.5
140546.2
317372.0
Blue139
19141.5
151151.3
151835.6
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15613350100200150139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+9Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
6Leave0
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points15
30Total auto15
TeleoperatedBlue +6
15Coral scored#24
54Coral points88
3Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
18Processor points6
32Net points16
50Algae points22
104Total teleop110
Reef
8L4#7
6L3#8
3L2#8
3L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#32
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
150Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.2
71.271.4
Auto16.3
Teleop46.1
End9.6
red by 20.8
51.30.6
50.350.9
Auto6.8
Teleop35.1
End9.4
Second
46.20.2
44.444.6
Auto9.0
Teleop30.7
End6.6
red by 4.8
191
#12
41.50.6
45.546.1
Auto11.8
Teleop28.1
End1.6
Third
1126
#10
29.50.2
25.826.0
Auto4.8
Teleop20.5
End4.2
blue by 6.1
1518
#13
35.60.6
29.129.7
Auto3.2
Teleop29.9
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned