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Red147
25013.9
225241.1
34060.7
Blue93
383819.0
140545.3
150748.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1069905015020014793

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+18Teleop
+18Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points17
40Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +4
9Coral scored#11
33Coral points39
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
57Total teleop53
Reef
7L4#6
3L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
36Foul points0
147Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
340
#2
60.72.2
36.538.7
Auto18.1
Teleop34.7
End7.9
red by 12.5
1507
#19
48.20.9
31.832.7
Auto8.6
Teleop30.7
End8.9
Second
2252
#33
41.12.2
33.836.1
Auto11.6
Teleop27.8
End1.7
blue by 4.2
45.30.9
32.433.2
Auto8.4
Teleop30.9
End6.0
Third
250
#52
13.92.2
20.722.9
Auto4.0
Teleop8.6
End1.4
blue by 5.1
3838
#27
19.00.9
20.921.8
Auto7.4
Teleop8.0
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsEarned