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Red44
814012.5
158518.2
686836.4
Blue32
57813.6
493021.7
25013.9
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6075020401001204432

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +4
6Coral scored#5
20Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
26Total teleop22
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
44Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6868
#20
36.41.1
20.719.6
Auto5.3
Teleop29.4
End1.8
red by 14.7
4930
#42
21.73.7
18.414.8
Auto5.5
Teleop14.5
End1.7
Second
1585
#41
18.21.1
14.813.7
Auto5.8
Teleop11.5
End0.9
red by 4.3
250
#52
13.93.7
22.919.2
Auto4.0
Teleop8.6
End1.4
Third
8140
#36
12.51.1
18.617.4
Auto3.0
Teleop6.2
End3.3
blue by 1.1
578
#46
13.63.7
23.720.0
Auto2.5
Teleop7.9
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed36%Barge oddsMissed