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Red69
159143.5
691129.4
158518.2
Blue81
395122.0
261444.4
112625.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions888870758085906981

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
0Teleop0
Endgame+8
Fouls+12
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#3
7Coral points13
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +3
9Coral scored#10
33Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
47Total teleop50
Reef
4L4#6
2L3#4
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
0Foul points4
69Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1591
#32
43.51.3
35.334.1
Auto10.6
Teleop31.3
End1.5
blue by 1.0
2614
#12
44.40.4
36.135.7
Auto10.7
Teleop28.9
End4.8
Second
6911
#51
29.41.0
26.825.7
Auto3.7
Teleop23.5
End2.2
red by 3.8
1126
#24
25.60.4
22.221.8
Auto4.4
Teleop18.6
End2.6
Third
1585
#41
18.21.3
15.814.6
Auto5.8
Teleop11.5
End0.9
blue by 3.8
3951
#22
22.00.4
19.318.9
Auto4.8
Teleop12.2
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsEarned