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Red44
999115.8
112627.0
300336.3
Blue74
99979.7
222854.7
493019.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1029960801201404474

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
Teleop+36
Endgame+24
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +9
9Leave6
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points22
19Total auto28
TeleoperatedBlue +27
3Coral scored#8
11Coral points28
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
0Processor points6
0Net points4
0Algae points10
11Total teleop38
Reef
1L4#3
2L3#5
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
5Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points6
44Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3003
#15
36.33.2
45.242.0
Auto7.4
Teleop21.7
End7.2
blue by 18.4
54.71.9
62.160.1
Auto12.5
Teleop35.1
End7.0
Second
1126
#13
27.03.2
29.526.3
Auto5.9
Teleop15.3
End5.8
red by 7.5
4930
#19
19.41.9
18.116.2
Auto5.5
Teleop13.2
End0.7
Third
9991
#26
15.85.3
14.28.9
Auto5.5
Teleop9.8
End0.8
red by 6.1
9997
#24
9.73.2
14.211.0
Auto2.5
Teleop7.5
End0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsEarned