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Red129
493019.4
686830.2
140546.0
Blue89
155925.6
318121.6
379917.8
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1066405015020012989

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+16Teleop
+28Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave6
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
27Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +5
11Coral scored#12
40Coral points43
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
18Processor points12
16Net points24
34Algae points36
74Total teleop79
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#4
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#20
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +40
12Foul points0
129Total score89

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1405
#22
46.00.5
45.045.6
Auto8.9
Teleop31.1
End6.0
red by 20.4
1559
#11
25.60.6
25.025.6
Auto5.4
Teleop15.0
End5.3
Second
6868
#14
30.20.5
29.229.7
Auto5.0
Teleop24.2
End1.0
red by 8.6
21.60.6
21.021.6
Auto4.1
Teleop16.7
End0.8
Third
4930
#19
19.40.5
18.519.0
Auto5.5
Teleop13.2
End0.7
red by 1.6
3799
#23
17.80.6
17.217.8
Auto3.3
Teleop10.0
End4.4