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Red166
222854.7
37834.6
19145.7
Blue31
112627.0
234014.6
42437.1
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154875010020016631

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+121Teleop
+135Endgame
+135Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
6Leave3
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points3
37Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +90
18Coral scored#4
63Coral points15
4Processor algae#1
6Net algae#0
24Processor points6
24Net points0
48Algae points6
111Total teleop21
Reef
11L4#2
7L3#2
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
34Game pieces#6
BargeRed +14
18Cage & park4
18Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +135
0Foul points0
166Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.70.9
51.952.8
Auto12.5
Teleop35.1
End7.0
red by 17.6
424
#12
37.11.1
38.237.1
Auto4.3
Teleop28.0
End4.8
Second
191
#7
45.70.9
42.943.8
Auto10.3
Teleop33.2
End2.2
red by 18.7
1126
#13
27.01.1
28.127.0
Auto5.9
Teleop15.3
End5.8
Third
378
#16
34.60.9
31.932.7
Auto5.9
Teleop25.2
End3.5
red by 20.1
2340
#21
14.61.1
15.714.6
Auto4.1
Teleop8.0
End2.5