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Red86
36924.6
35340.7
446723.9
Blue30
39511.0
64636.0
640121.5
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions904102060801001201408630

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+48Teleop
+50Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +45
11Coral scored#4
38Coral points13
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
62Total teleop17
Reef
5L4#2
3L3#1
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
6Foul points0
86Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
353
#4
40.70.3
34.935.2
Auto9.0
Teleop29.0
End2.7
red by 19.2
6401
#42
21.51.3
16.315.1
Auto5.2
Teleop14.6
End1.7
Second
369
#40
24.60.3
20.120.4
Auto2.0
Teleop21.5
End1.0
red by 13.5
395
#38
11.01.3
16.114.8
Auto4.1
Teleop5.0
End1.9
Third
4467
#17
23.90.3
22.122.4
Auto5.2
Teleop14.8
End3.8
red by 17.9
6463
#48
6.01.3
9.27.9
Auto0.1
Teleop5.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed