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Red116
149332.4
188027.9
205333.9
Blue47
115517.4
226518.8
659322.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions865202040608010012014011647

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+69Teleop
+67Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
0Leave3
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points3
33Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +42
14Coral scored#7
51Coral points25
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
12Processor points0
12Net points8
24Algae points8
75Total teleop33
Reef
12L4#3
4L3#2
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
4Foul points2
116Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.94.1
28.232.4
Auto11.6
Teleop22.3
End-0.1
red by 11.6
6593
#11
22.20.6
17.116.5
Auto5.8
Teleop11.4
End5.1
Second
32.44.2
30.734.9
Auto10.4
Teleop22.0
End-0.0
red by 13.6
2265
#32
18.80.6
16.015.4
Auto4.4
Teleop11.2
End3.1
Third
1880
#14
27.94.1
15.719.9
Auto6.3
Teleop19.7
End1.8
red by 10.5
1155
#35
17.40.6
17.717.0
Auto3.7
Teleop12.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsMissed