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Red76
149332.4
35340.7
642317.9
Blue53
33324.5
77304.3
731817.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1115101001507653

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+37Teleop
+33Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
6Coral scored#3
23Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
37Total teleop14
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
14Foul points24
76Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
353
#4
40.74.3
41.337.0
Auto9.0
Teleop29.0
End2.7
red by 16.2
333
#46
24.52.6
25.522.9
Auto3.3
Teleop19.2
End2.0
Second
32.44.3
33.729.4
Auto10.4
Teleop22.0
End-0.0
red by 14.6
7318
#29
17.82.6
18.315.7
Auto3.9
Teleop11.0
End2.9
Third
17.94.3
22.518.2
Auto4.5
Teleop11.2
End2.2
red by 13.5
7730
#37
4.32.6
10.17.5
Auto1.7
Teleop2.0
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed