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Red122
37927.3
287242.2
205333.9
Blue121
188027.9
901635.9
149332.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114916080100140160122121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+1
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
4Coral scored#5
21Coral points26
30Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +5
16Coral scored#20
56Coral points71
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
18Processor points12
12Net points8
30Algae points20
86Total teleop91
Reef
7L4#12
6L3#5
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#29
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
122Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.20.5
43.343.7
Auto10.4
Teleop28.5
End3.3
red by 6.3
9016
#13
35.90.9
34.235.1
Auto7.5
Teleop26.6
End1.8
Second
33.90.5
34.935.4
Auto11.6
Teleop22.3
End-0.1
red by 1.5
32.40.9
30.731.6
Auto10.4
Teleop22.0
End-0.0
Third
379
#21
27.30.5
27.928.4
Auto5.0
Teleop18.6
End3.7
blue by 0.5
1880
#14
27.90.9
26.227.1
Auto6.3
Teleop19.7
End1.8