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Red136
412258.1
311734.1
588128.4
Blue109
317125.6
149349.4
336039.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10988406080100120140160136109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+33Teleop
+31Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points4
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +37
20Coral scored#13
71Coral points48
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#3
18Processor points12
20Net points12
38Algae points24
109Total teleop72
Reef
6L4#6
7L3#3
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
4Foul points8
136Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.11.2
48.749.9
Auto13.4
Teleop34.0
End10.7
red by 8.7
1493
#21
49.40.1
35.535.4
Auto12.9
Teleop35.5
End1.0
Second
3117
#41
34.11.2
29.230.4
Auto2.6
Teleop28.1
End3.3
blue by 4.9
3360
#20
39.00.1
26.726.6
Auto6.1
Teleop26.5
End6.5
Third
5881
#35
28.41.4
19.921.4
Auto6.6
Teleop19.5
End2.3
red by 2.8
3171
#49
25.60.1
23.323.1
Auto6.6
Teleop16.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsMissed85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsEarned