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Red135
630026.7
87064.5
112629.6
Blue64
750432.8
806716.0
775914.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11352010015013564

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+45Teleop
+67Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +35
18Coral scored#10
66Coral points35
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
88Total teleop53
Reef
6L4#4
6L3#2
6L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#14
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +71
4Foul points0
135Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
870
#8
64.52.6
47.950.5
Auto15.5
Teleop38.9
End10.1
red by 31.8
7504
#24
32.80.8
22.523.3
Auto5.1
Teleop25.6
End2.1
Second
1126
#18
29.63.1
25.628.7
Auto5.7
Teleop19.2
End4.6
red by 13.6
8067
#47
16.00.6
8.48.9
Auto3.9
Teleop10.7
End1.4
Third
6300
#17
26.72.8
19.822.6
Auto6.0
Teleop16.8
End4.0
red by 11.8
7759
#52
14.90.8
19.220.0
Auto4.3
Teleop8.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed