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Red79
317125.6
946824.5
25016.3
Blue64
775914.9
159151.7
760541.7
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5512701001502007964

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+3
+7Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave6
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points24
16Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +11
8Coral scored#6
27Coral points22
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
41Total teleop30
Reef
3L4#4
4L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#13
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
8Foul points0
79Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3171
#49
25.60.5
24.525.0
Auto6.6
Teleop16.9
End2.1
blue by 26.1
1591
#11
51.73.1
50.947.8
Auto14.0
Teleop33.3
End4.4
Second
9468
#33
24.50.5
22.122.6
Auto3.8
Teleop18.0
End2.7
blue by 17.2
7605
#12
41.73.1
42.139.0
Auto10.9
Teleop27.1
End3.7
Third
250
#46
16.30.5
13.814.3
Auto4.8
Teleop8.4
End3.1
red by 1.4
7759
#52
14.93.1
17.814.7
Auto4.3
Teleop8.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsEarned35%Barge oddsMissed