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Red119
618125.5
319325.8
225249.7
Blue52
839327.8
460123.3
1030323.7
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1086705015020011952

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+31Teleop
+55Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +17
11Coral scored#6
38Coral points23
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
58Total teleop41
Reef
6L4#3
4L3#2
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#11
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +67
12Foul points0
119Total score52

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2252
#14
49.71.1
48.749.8
Auto9.6
Teleop34.2
End5.8
red by 21.9
8393
#41
27.80.7
21.420.7
Auto6.2
Teleop20.6
End1.0
Second
3193
#32
25.81.1
17.318.5
Auto6.6
Teleop17.7
End1.5
red by 2.1
23.71.1
18.317.2
Auto3.5
Teleop17.6
End2.5
Third
6181
#10
25.51.9
21.323.2
Auto4.7
Teleop13.8
End7.0
red by 2.2
4601
#20
23.30.7
19.318.6
Auto3.0
Teleop17.6
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed