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Red162
461176.4
260344.6
348420.5
Blue43
913913.5
771723.4
976717.2
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15054010020016243

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+103Teleop
+119Endgame
+119Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points9
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +75
18Coral scored#5
65Coral points18
2Processor algae#0
6Net algae#2
12Processor points0
24Net points8
36Algae points8
101Total teleop26
Reef
9L4#2
8L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
32Game pieces#9
BargeRed +16
24Cage & park8
24Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +119
0Foul points0
162Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.42.0
66.868.8
Auto19.4
Teleop48.5
End8.5
red by 53.0
7717
#50
23.42.9
24.421.5
Auto2.7
Teleop18.3
End2.3
Second
2603
#16
44.62.0
35.937.9
Auto8.6
Teleop28.1
End7.9
red by 27.5
9767
#45
17.21.7
18.616.9
Auto4.4
Teleop9.8
End2.9
Third
3484
#56
20.52.0
21.223.2
Auto4.3
Teleop13.8
End2.5
red by 7.0
9139
#54
13.52.9
17.714.8
Auto3.6
Teleop7.4
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
31%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsMissed