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Red142
217234.2
130830.9
301560.2
Blue84
395423.6
1020723.8
405018.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions147705010020014284

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+64Teleop
+66Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +50
25Coral scored#14
91Coral points51
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
115Total teleop65
Reef
10L4#6
8L3#5
5L2#2
5L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#18
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points8
142Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3015
#22
60.20.1
67.567.6
Auto14.0
Teleop36.2
End9.9
red by 36.4
23.80.6
23.623.1
Auto7.3
Teleop14.7
End1.8
Second
2172
#23
34.20.1
26.226.2
Auto7.6
Teleop24.7
End1.9
red by 10.7
3954
#42
23.60.9
20.920.0
Auto5.8
Teleop16.9
End0.9
Third
1308
#17
30.90.1
27.127.1
Auto5.2
Teleop24.3
End1.4
red by 12.1
4050
#33
18.80.6
20.820.2
Auto5.2
Teleop14.0
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsEarned