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Red128
239953.2
67728.5
962221.1
Blue94
964311.3
225249.7
460123.3
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions968740608012014012894

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+24Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +17
17Coral scored#15
60Coral points53
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
88Total teleop71
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#5
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points0
128Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2399
#11
53.22.1
40.542.6
Auto9.9
Teleop35.4
End7.9
red by 3.6
2252
#14
49.70.4
49.850.2
Auto9.6
Teleop34.2
End5.8
Second
677
#30
28.52.1
28.330.3
Auto5.2
Teleop18.4
End4.9
red by 5.2
4601
#20
23.30.4
18.619.0
Auto3.0
Teleop17.6
End2.8
Third
9622
#28
21.12.1
19.021.1
Auto2.5
Teleop15.3
End3.3
red by 9.8
9643
#35
11.30.4
12.312.7
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsEarned