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Red82
499137.3
814021.2
377711.1
Blue146
130830.9
225249.7
771723.4
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7211905010015020082146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+56
Endgame+58
Fouls+64
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points19
16Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +53
8Coral scored#16
30Coral points59
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#7
6Processor points18
16Net points28
22Algae points46
52Total teleop105
Reef
4L4#10
3L3#6
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +64
12Foul points18
82Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4991
#12
37.30.4
34.934.5
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End1.2
blue by 12.4
2252
#14
49.71.1
49.750.8
Auto9.6
Teleop34.2
End5.8
Second
8140
#43
21.20.4
18.217.7
Auto4.6
Teleop13.1
End3.4
blue by 9.8
1308
#17
30.91.1
27.829.0
Auto5.2
Teleop24.3
End1.4
Third
3777
#53
11.10.7
11.410.7
Auto4.1
Teleop6.5
End0.6
blue by 12.3
7717
#50
23.41.9
19.421.3
Auto2.7
Teleop18.3
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsEarned