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Red138
326030.6
260344.6
69573.8
Blue148
716529.2
217234.2
461176.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions155149100120140180200220138148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+32
Endgame+16
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave9
4Coral scored#6
21Coral points31
27Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +19
13Coral scored#19
47Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
79Total teleop98
Reef
6L4#7
6L3#9
3L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#31
BargeRed +16
26Cage & park10
26Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points0
138Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
695
#15
73.80.8
70.970.1
Auto19.2
Teleop47.1
End7.5
blue by 2.6
76.41.0
73.174.1
Auto19.4
Teleop48.5
End8.5
Second
2603
#16
44.60.8
42.041.2
Auto8.6
Teleop28.1
End7.9
red by 10.4
2172
#23
34.21.0
31.532.5
Auto7.6
Teleop24.7
End1.9
Third
3260
#47
30.60.8
31.430.6
Auto6.0
Teleop18.0
End6.7
red by 1.4
7165
#26
29.21.0
28.129.1
Auto4.4
Teleop23.8
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsMissed93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed69%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed