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Red166
69573.8
178763.5
155931.2
Blue177
225249.7
412139.4
140549.1
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169141100200250166177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+21Teleop
+1Endgame
Fouls+11
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave6
6Coral scored#6
30Coral points31
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +28
27Coral scored#18
98Coral points64
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
6Processor points12
16Net points16
22Algae points28
120Total teleop92
Reef
10L4#12
12L3#4
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points12
166Total score177

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
695
#15
73.80.2
70.170.2
Auto19.2
Teleop47.1
End7.5
red by 24.1
2252
#14
49.70.7
48.549.2
Auto9.6
Teleop34.2
End5.8
Second
63.50.2
59.860.0
Auto13.7
Teleop38.6
End11.2
red by 14.5
1405
#25
49.10.7
47.948.6
Auto9.7
Teleop31.5
End7.8
Third
1559
#19
31.20.2
27.527.7
Auto7.6
Teleop16.8
End6.8
blue by 8.2
39.40.7
38.339.0
Auto8.8
Teleop22.9
End7.7