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Red53
603227.8
976715.1
1001122.2
Blue31
751611.9
566716.9
693614.3
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5773020401001201401605331

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+20Teleop
+16Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave3
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +7
5Coral scored#5
19Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
29Total teleop22
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
8Foul points2
53Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6032
#15
27.81.3
19.318.0
Auto6.4
Teleop16.9
End4.4
red by 10.8
5667
#25
16.93.1
21.218.1
Auto3.7
Teleop11.6
End1.6
Second
22.20.8
19.919.2
Auto5.0
Teleop15.3
End1.8
red by 7.9
6936
#47
14.34.3
18.814.6
Auto3.2
Teleop8.1
End3.0
Third
9767
#40
15.10.9
11.110.2
Auto3.6
Teleop8.7
End2.9
red by 3.2
7516
#28
11.94.3
22.017.8
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed