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Red150
255627.4
402871.0
381419.8
Blue59
751611.9
581141.7
43221.9
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127785010015020015059

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+79Teleop
+91Endgame
+91Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +61
20Coral scored#9
73Coral points32
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
18Processor points6
16Net points8
34Algae points14
107Total teleop46
Reef
9L4#4
7L3#2
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
32Game pieces#12
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +91
0Foul points0
150Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.02.3
66.568.8
Auto21.0
Teleop43.0
End7.0
red by 29.3
41.72.6
35.232.6
Auto9.0
Teleop27.8
End5.0
Second
2556
#26
27.42.3
23.726.0
Auto3.5
Teleop17.9
End5.9
red by 5.5
432
#34
21.91.6
18.016.4
Auto3.8
Teleop12.7
End5.3
Third
3814
#17
19.82.3
11.914.2
Auto4.1
Teleop11.7
End4.1
red by 7.9
7516
#28
11.92.6
15.012.4
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed