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Red111
34071.2
791723.2
696428.5
Blue71
814511.2
12025.6
751537.3
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1427405010020011171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+24Teleop
+34Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +3
10Coral scored#11
37Coral points40
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
61Total teleop58
Reef
5L4#3
3L3#2
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#16
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
6Foul points0
111Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
340
#4
71.21.4
69.267.8
Auto19.2
Teleop42.8
End9.2
red by 34.0
7515
#14
37.30.7
33.532.8
Auto7.4
Teleop25.8
End4.1
Second
6964
#16
28.52.4
26.123.7
Auto8.3
Teleop14.5
End5.8
red by 2.9
120
#24
25.61.2
30.429.2
Auto3.0
Teleop19.7
End2.9
Third
7917
#33
23.21.4
25.323.8
Auto6.5
Teleop12.1
End4.6
red by 12.0
8145
#46
11.21.2
12.311.1
Auto3.5
Teleop6.6
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsMissed