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Red139
414561.4
320148.2
1001122.2
Blue102
432942.8
959741.6
566716.9
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14410750200139102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+15Teleop
+23Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points14
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +8
16Coral scored#11
57Coral points39
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
12Processor points18
12Net points16
24Algae points34
81Total teleop73
Reef
8L4#5
5L3#4
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#21
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +37
14Foul points0
139Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.40.1
59.959.9
Auto17.6
Teleop38.4
End5.5
red by 18.6
4329
#10
42.80.0
42.742.8
Auto9.0
Teleop32.7
End1.1
Second
48.20.1
46.746.7
Auto10.8
Teleop28.5
End8.9
red by 6.6
9597
#11
41.60.0
41.541.5
Auto7.0
Teleop32.3
End2.3
Third
22.20.1
21.321.3
Auto5.0
Teleop15.3
End1.8
red by 5.2
5667
#25
16.90.0
16.916.9
Auto3.7
Teleop11.6
End1.6