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Red171
4845.5
426932.6
239952.0
Blue164
260347.0
37936.5
581143.0
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14814680100120160180200220171164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points14
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +2
24Coral scored#23
86Coral points84
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#3
12Processor points24
24Net points12
36Algae points36
122Total teleop120
Reef
10L4#9
9L3#9
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#33
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
171Total score164

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2399
#16
52.00.5
51.552.0
Auto10.1
Teleop34.8
End7.1
red by 5.1
2603
#10
47.00.5
46.447.0
Auto8.4
Teleop30.1
End8.4
Second
48
#6
45.50.5
45.045.5
Auto6.2
Teleop31.4
End7.9
red by 2.6
5811
#21
43.00.5
42.543.0
Auto10.5
Teleop27.3
End5.2
Third
4269
#23
32.60.5
32.132.6
Auto3.3
Teleop28.1
End1.2
blue by 3.8
379
#11
36.50.5
35.936.5
Auto5.7
Teleop23.1
End7.6