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Red220
260344.6
69571.8
414561.5
Blue68
962217.9
265616.4
239943.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2299405015020025030035022068

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+52Auto
+120Teleop
+146Endgame
+152Fouls
AutonomousRed +52
0Leave0
12Coral scored#1
58Coral points6
58Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +68
20Coral scored#12
72Coral points44
3Processor algae#1
10Net algae#3
18Processor points6
40Net points12
58Algae points18
130Total teleop62
Reef
10L4#6
10L3#2
7L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
45Game pieces#17
BargeRed +26
26Cage & park0
26Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +152
6Foul points0
220Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
695
#5
71.80.4
76.576.9
Auto19.6
Teleop44.6
End7.7
red by 28.8
2399
#18
43.12.9
52.049.1
Auto10.2
Teleop28.8
End4.0
Second
61.50.4
69.069.5
Auto16.9
Teleop39.8
End4.8
red by 43.6
17.92.9
19.416.5
Auto2.8
Teleop11.9
End3.1
Third
44.60.4
47.047.4
Auto9.1
Teleop26.2
End9.3
red by 28.1
2656
#19
16.42.9
19.616.7
Auto3.7
Teleop12.5
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
49%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed