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Red148
198659.3
176435.8
156161.0
Blue196
406869.3
452279.7
234118.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions162171100150200250148196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+44
Endgame+52
Fouls+48
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
7Coral scored#8
37Coral points41
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +37
13Coral scored#27
47Coral points96
4Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
24Processor points12
20Net points20
44Algae points32
91Total teleop128
Reef
8L4#15
5L3#8
4L2#9
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +48
4Foul points0
148Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.00.3
61.261.0
Auto14.4
Teleop39.0
End7.6
blue by 18.7
79.70.7
78.679.3
Auto20.0
Teleop51.7
End8.0
Second
59.30.3
59.659.3
Auto14.7
Teleop38.6
End6.1
blue by 10.0
69.30.7
68.168.9
Auto20.1
Teleop45.9
End3.3
Third
1764
#18
35.80.3
36.135.8
Auto8.3
Teleop25.3
End2.2
red by 17.8
2341
#36
18.00.7
16.917.6
Auto5.1
Teleop9.7
End3.2