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Red161
271843.8
181923.3
400552.7
Blue61
234118.0
277319.3
235919.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13960010015020016161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+86Teleop
+98Endgame
+100Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave6
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +58
23Coral scored#9
82Coral points34
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
106Total teleop48
Reef
9L4#4
8L3#4
6L2#1
6L1 · trough#1
34Game pieces#13
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +100
2Foul points0
161Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4005
#10
52.72.5
49.552.0
Auto11.0
Teleop31.8
End9.8
red by 33.4
2773
#30
19.30.3
19.619.3
Auto1.9
Teleop14.9
End2.6
Second
43.82.5
40.543.0
Auto10.2
Teleop29.5
End4.1
red by 24.7
2359
#33
19.10.3
19.519.1
Auto3.9
Teleop13.4
End1.9
Third
1819
#22
23.32.5
20.823.3
Auto4.2
Teleop17.2
End1.9
red by 5.2
2341
#36
18.00.3
14.714.4
Auto5.1
Teleop9.7
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed