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Red130
963111.5
393763.3
313035.4
Blue64
946217.3
181918.0
235230.9
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1146605010015013064

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+40Teleop
+60Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave3
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points6
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +29
13Coral scored#10
48Coral points35
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
6Processor points6
24Net points8
30Algae points14
78Total teleop49
Reef
6L4#3
6L3#2
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#14
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
6Foul points0
130Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.31.9
50.352.2
Auto12.5
Teleop43.0
End7.9
red by 32.5
30.90.4
23.824.2
Auto3.7
Teleop24.7
End2.5
Second
35.43.2
32.535.7
Auto3.4
Teleop25.2
End6.9
red by 17.4
1819
#27
18.00.4
21.622.0
Auto3.2
Teleop12.9
End1.9
Third
9631
#37
11.53.2
12.315.5
Auto1.9
Teleop7.2
End2.5
blue by 5.8
9462
#14
17.30.4
15.115.5
Auto5.3
Teleop8.8
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsEarned