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Red100
569038.6
233311.7
903113.2
Blue41
94729.0
208012.2
3119.4
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions684902040608010012014010041

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+53Teleop
+53Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points9
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +50
16Coral scored#4
58Coral points16
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
76Total teleop26
Reef
9L4#3
4L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +59
6Foul points0
100Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.62.1
34.336.4
Auto5.5
Teleop31.8
End1.3
red by 19.2
31
#26
19.41.3
22.120.7
Auto4.6
Teleop8.5
End6.3
Second
9031
#15
13.22.1
11.213.4
Auto3.7
Teleop7.4
End2.1
red by 1.0
2080
#30
12.21.3
13.812.4
Auto3.7
Teleop6.7
End1.8
Third
2333
#39
11.73.1
8.711.7
Auto1.7
Teleop8.8
End1.2
red by 2.7
9472
#31
9.01.3
10.18.7
Auto2.8
Teleop5.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
10%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed