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Red209
1001521.5
368398.3
755874.8
Blue99
591242.6
503130.4
926220.8
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions201835010015025030020999

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+34Auto
+88Teleop
+98Endgame
+110Fouls
AutonomousRed +34
9Leave0
8Coral scored#3
42Coral points17
51Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +54
29Coral scored#16
104Coral points56
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
132Total teleop78
Reef
17L4#7
9L3#5
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
43Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +110
12Foul points0
209Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
98.30.8
93.093.8
Auto26.5
Teleop66.3
End5.4
red by 55.7
5912
#39
42.60.1
41.541.5
Auto9.9
Teleop32.5
End0.2
Second
74.80.8
64.365.1
Auto19.6
Teleop44.7
End10.5
red by 44.4
5031
#25
30.40.1
28.328.2
Auto5.0
Teleop24.6
End0.8
Third
21.50.8
16.617.4
Auto6.7
Teleop13.0
End1.8
red by 0.6
9262
#40
20.80.1
18.818.7
Auto6.0
Teleop12.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
54%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed