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Red170
952528.8
503130.4
368398.3
Blue161
128539.7
502446.1
136051.2
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18513650100150200250300170161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+19Teleop
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave9
5Coral scored#4
23Coral points21
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +23
28Coral scored#20
100Coral points71
4Processor algae#3
4Net algae#7
24Processor points18
16Net points28
40Algae points46
140Total teleop117
Reef
9L4#10
11L3#5
8L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points0
170Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
98.30.1
97.998.0
Auto26.5
Teleop66.3
End5.4
red by 47.1
1360
#18
51.21.4
46.848.2
Auto12.2
Teleop35.9
End3.0
Second
5031
#25
30.40.1
31.131.2
Auto5.0
Teleop24.6
End0.8
blue by 15.7
5024
#14
46.11.4
42.043.5
Auto13.0
Teleop28.8
End4.4
Third
9525
#11
28.80.1
28.428.5
Auto7.0
Teleop19.7
End2.0
blue by 11.0
1285
#31
39.71.4
39.540.9
Auto7.6
Teleop31.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
88%Coral oddsEarned50%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
61%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsEarned