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Red155
373951.2
132567.7
611043.6
Blue108
447676.1
926220.8
965924.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154129100200250155108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+35Teleop
+45Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave6
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points30
30Total auto36
TeleoperatedRed +41
22Coral scored#15
79Coral points54
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
6Processor points6
24Net points8
30Algae points14
109Total teleop68
Reef
10L4#7
7L3#6
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
2Foul points0
155Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.70.9
59.360.2
Auto19.0
Teleop43.5
End5.2
blue by 8.5
76.10.7
76.475.8
Auto19.7
Teleop53.6
End2.9
Second
3739
#21
51.20.9
42.543.4
Auto9.0
Teleop39.8
End2.4
red by 26.9
9659
#27
24.30.7
20.219.6
Auto7.6
Teleop14.7
End1.9
Third
6110
#35
43.60.9
38.038.9
Auto5.5
Teleop35.6
End2.4
red by 22.8
9262
#40
20.80.7
21.420.8
Auto6.0
Teleop12.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
74%Coral oddsEarned44%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed