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Red159
415270.4
611043.6
978559.9
Blue238
132567.7
755874.8
373951.2
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions178189150200250159238

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+51
Endgame+61
Fouls+79
AutonomousBlue +18
6Leave0
7Coral scored#12
34Coral points58
40Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +33
20Coral scored#27
73Coral points96
3Processor algae#4
3Net algae#4
18Processor points24
12Net points16
30Algae points40
103Total teleop136
Reef
10L4#17
7L3#10
4L2#7
6L1 · trough#5
33Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +79
2Foul points20
159Total score238

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4152
#12
70.40.2
67.967.7
Auto21.2
Teleop40.8
End8.5
blue by 4.3
74.80.9
69.370.2
Auto19.6
Teleop44.7
End10.5
Second
59.90.2
57.457.1
Auto14.0
Teleop42.9
End3.0
blue by 7.8
67.70.9
62.263.1
Auto19.0
Teleop43.5
End5.2
Third
6110
#35
43.60.2
41.040.8
Auto5.5
Teleop35.6
End2.4
blue by 7.6
3739
#21
51.20.9
45.746.6
Auto9.0
Teleop39.8
End2.4