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Red175
124178.2
888471.8
503239.2
Blue203
368398.3
128539.7
447676.1
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions201225100150250300175203

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+36
Endgame+34
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave6
10Coral scored#12
52Coral points59
58Total auto65
TeleoperatedBlue +29
21Coral scored#21
75Coral points76
2Processor algae#4
5Net algae#9
12Processor points24
20Net points36
32Algae points60
107Total teleop136
Reef
10L4#10
10L3#9
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#7
38Game pieces#46
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Penalties & totalBlue +28
6Foul points0
175Total score203

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.20.5
78.978.4
Auto22.0
Teleop53.6
End2.6
blue by 20.1
98.30.2
97.196.9
Auto26.5
Teleop66.3
End5.4
Second
71.80.5
72.572.0
Auto18.3
Teleop47.1
End6.3
blue by 4.4
76.10.2
75.074.8
Auto19.7
Teleop53.6
End2.9
Third
5032
#30
39.20.5
39.939.4
Auto5.1
Teleop33.6
End0.5
blue by 0.5
1285
#31
39.70.2
38.638.4
Auto7.6
Teleop31.2
End0.9