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Red129
85432.7
540677.8
672534.3
Blue80
316153.0
238635.5
133421.1
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions133115608010014016018012980

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+35Teleop
+45Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
3Coral scored#4
14Coral points19
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +31
16Coral scored#10
56Coral points35
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
74Total teleop43
Reef
8L4#5
5L3#5
2L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#16
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
6Foul points2
129Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.80.2
69.569.7
Auto18.0
Teleop48.3
End11.5
red by 24.8
3161
#23
53.02.1
47.845.7
Auto12.6
Teleop33.3
End7.1
Second
6725
#32
34.30.2
29.629.8
Auto7.7
Teleop25.0
End1.7
blue by 1.2
2386
#25
35.52.1
34.432.3
Auto8.9
Teleop22.1
End4.5
Third
854
#41
32.70.2
21.421.6
Auto4.1
Teleop20.4
End8.2
red by 11.5
1334
#50
21.12.1
27.225.1
Auto4.3
Teleop16.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned60%Barge oddsEarned