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Red170
588548.5
85432.7
497652.4
Blue127
491767.4
906236.0
956935.2
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12114450100200250170127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+35Teleop
+47Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave0
9Coral scored#7
44Coral points33
44Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +24
16Coral scored#16
56Coral points58
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
24Processor points6
20Net points12
44Algae points18
100Total teleop76
Reef
10L4#7
7L3#7
6L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points4
170Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4976
#20
52.43.8
50.454.3
Auto14.6
Teleop30.6
End7.2
blue by 14.9
4917
#10
67.40.5
62.161.7
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
Second
5885
#30
48.53.8
39.142.9
Auto16.8
Teleop29.9
End1.9
red by 12.5
9062
#22
36.00.5
34.734.3
Auto8.5
Teleop26.6
End0.9
Third
854
#41
32.73.8
22.826.6
Auto4.1
Teleop20.4
End8.2
blue by 2.5
9569
#24
35.20.5
33.132.6
Auto6.9
Teleop26.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsEarned20%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned