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Red190
260937.2
78152.3
220079.9
Blue153
122935.4
912742.0
406953.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18811650100150200250190153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+39Teleop
+33Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave9
10Coral scored#4
48Coral points21
51Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +18
21Coral scored#24
75Coral points85
4Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
24Processor points12
24Net points8
48Algae points20
123Total teleop105
Reef
13L4#11
5L3#9
7L2#4
6L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +6
10Cage & park16
10Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
6Foul points2
190Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.90.6
81.181.8
Auto23.8
Teleop54.6
End1.6
red by 26.0
4069
#11
53.92.1
48.650.7
Auto14.7
Teleop33.4
End5.8
Second
781
#17
52.30.6
49.850.5
Auto11.1
Teleop39.0
End2.2
red by 10.3
9127
#43
42.02.1
35.637.8
Auto7.6
Teleop33.3
End1.1
Third
2609
#34
37.20.6
37.438.1
Auto5.7
Teleop24.1
End7.3
red by 1.7
1229
#38
35.42.1
29.631.7
Auto6.2
Teleop27.3
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned18%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
54%Barge oddsMissed34%Barge oddsEarned