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Red134
540827.2
720046.6
588548.5
Blue126
497652.4
771238.7
492047.1
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12215550100200134126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+16Teleop
+16Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
5Coral scored#6
24Coral points30
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +13
15Coral scored#16
53Coral points56
4Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
24Processor points12
20Net points16
44Algae points28
97Total teleop84
Reef
6L4#8
7L3#6
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points8
134Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5885
#30
48.51.1
46.247.3
Auto16.8
Teleop29.9
End1.9
blue by 3.9
4976
#20
52.41.6
53.652.0
Auto14.6
Teleop30.6
End7.2
Second
7200
#14
46.61.1
45.046.1
Auto6.6
Teleop34.4
End5.5
blue by 0.5
4920
#44
47.11.6
47.546.0
Auto14.5
Teleop31.5
End1.1
Third
5408
#40
27.21.1
26.127.2
Auto4.8
Teleop21.1
End1.3
blue by 11.5
7712
#33
38.71.6
40.338.7
Auto6.6
Teleop28.2
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsMissed