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Red249
2056110.7
467897.4
790242.1
Blue233
747644.2
494686.9
540989.3
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions264228150200250300350249233

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+10Teleop
+24Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave9
13Coral scored#10
65Coral points49
71Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +3
23Coral scored#23
82Coral points81
3Processor algae#5
13Net algae#11
18Processor points30
52Net points44
70Algae points74
152Total teleop155
Reef
15L4#11
10L3#11
7L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
52Game pieces#49
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points8
249Total score233

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
110.70.1
110.2110.1
Auto31.3
Teleop69.1
End10.3
red by 21.4
89.30.0
89.389.4
Auto25.2
Teleop61.1
End3.0
Second
97.40.1
96.896.8
Auto26.2
Teleop61.2
End9.9
red by 10.4
86.90.0
87.087.0
Auto20.8
Teleop55.4
End10.7
Third
7902
#31
42.10.1
41.641.5
Auto10.9
Teleop23.6
End7.6
blue by 2.1
7476
#19
44.20.0
44.244.3
Auto6.6
Teleop34.7
End3.0