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Red219
111482.2
77236.3
61070.9
Blue174
909863.9
588548.5
131049.7
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions204159100250300219174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
+37Teleop
+47Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousBlue +15
6Leave0
6Coral scored#10
30Coral points51
36Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +52
26Coral scored#21
95Coral points75
5Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
30Processor points6
20Net points12
50Algae points18
145Total teleop93
Reef
14L4#12
7L3#10
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#2
42Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +45
12Foul points14
219Total score174

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.20.6
79.179.7
Auto20.1
Teleop56.2
End5.9
red by 18.3
63.90.0
62.762.7
Auto15.5
Teleop36.4
End11.9
Second
610
#8
70.90.6
67.868.4
Auto17.2
Teleop45.5
End8.2
red by 21.2
1310
#27
49.70.0
48.548.6
Auto8.3
Teleop32.2
End9.2
Third
772
#45
36.30.6
33.233.8
Auto5.0
Teleop28.7
End2.6
blue by 12.2
5885
#30
48.50.0
47.347.3
Auto16.8
Teleop29.9
End1.9