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Red190
205699.4
467881.2
697835.1
Blue195
61049.9
353830.0
368375.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions25920250100150300350190195

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
Teleop+13
Endgame+5
Fouls+5
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave9
13Coral scored#7
63Coral points35
72Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +41
13Coral scored#20
48Coral points73
4Processor algae#6
8Net algae#9
24Processor points36
32Net points36
56Algae points72
104Total teleop145
Reef
12L4#8
5L3#9
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#6
38Game pieces#42
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points0
190Total score195

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2056
#11
99.44.3
112.5108.3
Auto28.5
Teleop60.8
End10.0
red by 23.9
75.51.3
79.177.8
Auto24.4
Teleop48.7
End2.5
Second
81.24.3
86.982.6
Auto25.0
Teleop47.1
End9.1
red by 31.3
610
#19
49.91.3
70.969.6
Auto16.2
Teleop27.9
End5.7
Third
6978
#15
35.14.3
43.639.3
Auto7.6
Teleop26.7
End0.8
red by 5.2
3538
#26
30.01.3
53.051.7
Auto8.2
Teleop22.4
End-0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
98%Coral oddsMissed90%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsMissed