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Red221
368375.5
716666.1
888465.0
Blue196
205699.4
131048.8
591236.1
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions223203150250221196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+35Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
10Coral scored#11
49Coral points54
58Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +31
33Coral scored#24
119Coral points86
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
12Processor points18
16Net points12
28Algae points30
147Total teleop116
Reef
19L4#13
11L3#10
8L2#6
5L1 · trough#6
49Game pieces#41
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
221Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.50.4
70.270.7
Auto24.4
Teleop48.7
End2.5
blue by 23.9
2056
#11
99.40.3
99.499.7
Auto28.5
Teleop60.8
End10.0
Second
66.10.4
66.767.1
Auto12.1
Teleop46.9
End7.1
red by 17.3
1310
#12
48.80.3
45.145.4
Auto11.9
Teleop29.5
End7.3
Third
8884
#16
65.00.4
66.166.6
Auto17.5
Teleop42.6
End4.8
red by 28.9
5912
#27
36.10.3
35.235.6
Auto9.4
Teleop26.0
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
95%Coral oddsEarned40%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned67%Barge oddsEarned