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Red40
353830.0
790231.7
285211.4
Blue224
540976.0
716666.1
205699.4
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions59278010020030040040224

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+44
Teleop+160
Endgame+184
Fouls+184
AutonomousBlue +44
0Leave0
0Coral scored#9
0Coral points44
0Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +116
8Coral scored#29
28Coral points104
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#8
6Processor points18
4Net points32
10Algae points50
38Total teleop154
Reef
3L4#18
3L3#8
1L2#9
1L1 · trough#3
10Game pieces#49
BargeBlue +24
2Cage & park26
2Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +184
0Foul points0
40Total score224

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7902
#10
31.73.1
34.131.0
Auto3.2
Teleop25.1
End3.5
blue by 67.7
2056
#11
99.41.7
99.798.0
Auto28.5
Teleop60.8
End10.0
Second
3538
#26
30.03.1
32.329.2
Auto8.2
Teleop22.4
End-0.6
blue by 46.0
76.01.7
77.075.2
Auto22.0
Teleop51.1
End2.9
Third
2852
#24
11.43.1
14.511.4
Auto1.5
Teleop8.7
End1.2
blue by 54.7
66.11.7
67.165.4
Auto12.1
Teleop46.9
End7.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed91%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed86%Barge oddsEarned