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Red191
716666.1
697835.1
399069.6
Blue139
490768.6
260932.6
888465.0
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions186180140160200220191139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+50Teleop
+52Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave3
8Coral scored#8
39Coral points41
48Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +46
24Coral scored#16
87Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
7Net algae#4
12Processor points6
28Net points16
40Algae points22
127Total teleop81
Reef
10L4#8
7L3#5
9L2#7
6L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#29
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +52
0Foul points0
191Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.60.5
68.569.1
Auto16.8
Teleop43.7
End9.1
red by 1.0
68.60.6
69.268.6
Auto17.2
Teleop41.9
End9.4
Second
66.10.5
65.065.5
Auto12.1
Teleop46.9
End7.1
red by 1.1
8884
#16
65.00.6
65.665.0
Auto17.5
Teleop42.6
End4.8
Third
6978
#15
35.10.5
34.134.6
Auto7.6
Teleop26.7
End0.8
red by 2.5
2609
#17
32.60.6
33.232.6
Auto5.5
Teleop19.5
End7.6