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Red230
1016721.5
2056112.3
220080.7
Blue189
111475.2
124164.3
686532.1
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions230173100150200250300230189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+39Teleop
+43Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave0
8Coral scored#10
40Coral points51
40Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +50
32Coral scored#21
114Coral points76
5Processor algae#3
7Net algae#7
30Processor points18
28Net points28
58Algae points46
172Total teleop122
Reef
15L4#13
13L3#7
5L2#8
7L1 · trough#3
52Game pieces#41
BargeRed +4
18Cage & park14
18Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points2
230Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
112.30.3
111.8112.1
Auto26.8
Teleop78.6
End6.8
red by 37.1
75.20.3
75.375.5
Auto21.3
Teleop50.2
End3.7
Second
80.70.3
80.280.6
Auto21.5
Teleop56.3
End2.9
red by 16.3
64.30.3
64.464.7
Auto17.3
Teleop44.9
End2.2
Third
21.50.3
21.021.4
Auto4.7
Teleop15.9
End0.9
blue by 10.7
6865
#23
32.10.3
32.232.5
Auto6.0
Teleop23.0
End3.1