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Red178
111475.2
124164.3
686532.1
Blue153
133427.9
132547.7
540663.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184143100200250178153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+11Teleop
+23Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
10Coral scored#8
48Coral points41
51Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +7
21Coral scored#18
75Coral points66
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
18Processor points12
16Net points24
34Algae points36
109Total teleop102
Reef
8L4#8
10L3#9
9L2#4
4L1 · trough#5
38Game pieces#34
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +25
2Foul points0
178Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.20.1
75.275.3
Auto21.3
Teleop50.2
End3.7
red by 11.3
63.90.3
63.663.9
Auto13.1
Teleop41.1
End9.7
Second
64.30.1
64.364.4
Auto17.3
Teleop44.9
End2.2
red by 16.7
47.70.3
47.447.7
Auto12.6
Teleop32.0
End3.2
Third
6865
#23
32.10.1
32.132.2
Auto6.0
Teleop23.0
End3.1
red by 4.2
1334
#20
27.90.3
27.627.9
Auto5.9
Teleop20.6
End1.4