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Red180
124164.3
540663.9
1021824.1
Blue205
2056112.3
765930.9
430837.4
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153186100200250180205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+19
Teleop+19
Endgame+27
Fouls+25
AutonomousBlue +19
3Leave9
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points36
26Total auto45
Teleoperatedlevel
27Coral scored#26
96Coral points92
4Processor algae#4
4Net algae#5
24Processor points24
16Net points20
40Algae points44
136Total teleop136
Reef
11L4#12
10L3#9
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#5
40Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +25
2Foul points0
180Total score205

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.32.2
62.464.6
Auto17.3
Teleop44.9
End2.2
blue by 47.9
112.32.4
108.4110.8
Auto26.8
Teleop78.6
End6.8
Second
63.92.2
59.461.7
Auto13.1
Teleop41.1
End9.7
red by 26.4
37.42.4
33.636.0
Auto8.5
Teleop26.8
End2.1
Third
24.12.2
22.925.1
Auto4.5
Teleop17.3
End2.3
blue by 6.8
7659
#10
30.92.4
26.328.8
Auto4.2
Teleop19.0
End7.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsEarned85%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned